Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence officer and regional analyst, has noted that ongoing ceasefire discussions with Hezbollah and Hamas’s inclination to negotiate reflect the influence of President-elect Donald Trump on Iran’s strategy.
Melamed observed that recent events suggest Iran may be reassessing its approach, prompting its proxies to reduce tensions as the U.S. prepares for a leadership change.
With a background as a deputy and senior Arab affairs adviser to mayors Teddy Kollek and Ehud Olmert, Melamed has been involved in negotiations during both the first and second intifadas. In a message to the Republican Interest, he commented, “Recent developments indicate that Iran may be recalibrating course for its proxies to de-escalate tensions ahead of the U.S. presidential changeover.”
He pointed out that Hezbollah’s surprising readiness for a ceasefire with Israel, the Houthis’ apparent decrease in attacks, and Hamas’s signals of a willingness to continue talks with Israel suggest that Iran is aligning its proxies to ease conflicts before Trump assumes office again. This indicates a strategic adjustment that could influence Iran’s long-term ambitions.
Melamed further explained that these groups likely recognize that the Biden administration, in its concluding phase and focused on establishing a legacy, is currently offering the most favorable terms they can anticipate.
Conversely, under Trump’s leadership, a stronger commitment to support Israel is expected, creating a less advantageous negotiating landscape for these proxies.
Additionally, he noted Iran’s recent remarks indicating a possible reduction in retaliatory actions against Israel, linked to the ceasefire in Lebanon, suggest that Iran might be adjusting its own tactics—at least temporarily.
Melamed concluded that Tehran seems aware that while the Biden administration has limited Israel’s military options against Iranian interests, Trump’s return could potentially alter this dynamic, allowing for more assertive Israeli military actions.
