Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, highlights that the collapse of the Assad regime is transforming regional security dynamics, particularly for Jordan and Iraq, and easing some threats to Israel while complicating the overall situation in the Middle East.
Melamed points out that with Assad’s downfall, Iran has lost its foothold in Syria, hindering its ability to use Iraq and Jordan as launching points against Israel.
In an email to The Republican Interest, Melamed stated, “The collapse of the Assad regime represents a significant turning point for Israel’s security and geostrategic positioning, dramatically shifting the regional balance of power.”
He noted that Iranian-backed groups like Hamas and Hezbollah have faced setbacks, especially following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. The fall of Assad’s regime further undermines Iran’s “ring of fire,” which aimed to encircle Israel with threats from Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.
In Iraq, pro-Iranian militias had previously exploited border crossings with Syria for smuggling. With Assad gone, these militias have retreated to Iraq, while Kurdish forces, backed by the U.S., have taken control of key border points, cutting off weapon transfers to the region.
In Jordan, Iran and Assad facilitated smuggling operations that supplied weapons to Palestinian militias like Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The collapse of Assad’s rule is expected to reduce these activities, diminishing threats to both Jordan and Israel.
While these changes present opportunities for Israel, they also pose challenges. Rebel groups in Syria are unlikely to directly confront Israel due to the need for reconstruction and Israel’s military strength. However, radical Sunni groups in northern Syria remain a potential threat.
Israel is actively countering this by deploying troops to the Golan Heights buffer zone and conducting strikes on Syrian military targets and Iranian assets.
Melamed concluded, “The collapse of the Assad regime is reshaping the region’s security dynamics, alleviating some threats to Israel while underscoring the complexity of the Middle East’s ever-shifting landscape. Israel remains vigilant and prepared to act decisively to safeguard its security.”
